The Future is almost here... it's scary and exciting!

Author unknown

Posted June 6, 2016 (Revised on April 6, 2020)

1. Only electric cars will be built

All major auto manufacturers have designated 5-6 billion dollars each to start building new plants that only build electric cars
Electric vehicles will become mainstream – The auto industry will be disrupted
Legacy car companies are taking an “evolutionary” approach to build a better car – Tech companies are taking a “revolutionary” approach to build a supercomputer on wheels

2. Auto repair shops go away

A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts – an electrical engine has 20
Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by dealers
It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric engine
Faulty electric engines are not repaired at dealerships – they are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots
If your electric "Check Motor" light comes on, you simply drive up to what looks like a car wash – Your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new electric engine

3. Gas stations go away

Parking meters will be replaced by meters that dispense electricity
Most companies, public facilities and homes will have electric charging stations

4. You won't own a car

In 2017, self-driving cars began driving on our roads without a safety driver
You may not want to own a car anymore – You will request one with a phone call, it will show up at your location, and drive you to your destination
You will not need to park a self-driving car – You will pay by the distance driven
Self-driving cars will become part of the Internet and World Wide Web – You will be more productive and entertained while being driven to your destinations

A baby born today may never get a driver’s license or own a car

How can this be? Consider this:

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide
Within a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt
What happened to Kodak will happen in other industries -- Most people won't see it coming
Did you think in 1998 that within 3 years you would never take pictures on film again?
Digital cameras were invented in 1975 – The first ones only had 10,000 pixels
As with most disruptive technologies that followed Moore’s law, digital cameras were a disappointment for a time – before they became way superior and mainstream in only a few short years

What happened then will happen again (but much faster) due to the intersection of multiple technologies like Big Data, Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence, IoT, autonomous and electric vehicles, mixed reality education, biometrics, genomics, 3D printing, telemedicine, robotic agriculture, etc.

Jobs will be lost, and others created

5. Cities will be transformed

Cities will need 90-95% less cars – And, the largest cities will be connected to other large cities with underground hyper-speed transit systems
Cities will be less congested, polluted and noisy because people and goods will travel in electric vehicles or underground – Parking lots will disappear
Because you can work while you commute, most people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood

6. Car insurance goes away

Since most people won’t own a car – there’s no need to insure one
Up to 1.2 million people die each year in car or truck accidents worldwide – That’s one accident every 60,000 miles
With autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in every 6 million miles – That will save a million lives each year worldwide
With the absence of vehicle accidents, personal and commercial line insurance will become 100X cheaper – Most auto insurers will disappear

7. Fossil fuels go away

As the demand for gas diminishes – the price for oil drops – like it did during the Chinese coronavirus pandemic in 2020 when crude oil dropped 3X to < $20 per barrel
Oil companies go away towards the end of the 21st century – as drilling for oil fades away – except to produce rocket and jet fuel and lubricants
Coal mining will dissipate – as China, which burns more coal than all other nations combined, becomes less reliant on the energy source
Natural gas consumption, however, will continue to grow – since it’s cleaner and produces low-cost electricity, plastics, etc.
Hydro, wind, nuclear and solar energy production will also continue to grow

8. We'll make our own energy

Solar production has been growing exponentially growth curve for over 30 years – doubling every two years
In 2016, more solar energy was installed worldwide than that produced by fossil fuel
Solar will become the predominant energy source for electricity within two decades
Homes with solar panels produce more energy during the day than they use – More homeowners and commercial sites will store and sell their energy back to the grid
Battery technology and arbitrage between solar panel owners and energy providers will reduce the wholesale-to-retail price gap. Electricity will become cheap and clean – less than 1.6 cents per kWh – enough to light a room from sunup to sundown

9. Water will be abundant and cheap

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water
Saltwater desalination only needs 2kWh per cubic meter – $0.25 per cubic meter
The ROI on a water well increases dramatically – with lower pump energy costs
We don't have scarce water in most places – we only have scarce drinking water
Imagine having as much clean water as we could possibly need, for nearly no cost

The sun and ocean will be harnessed to provide us our energy and drinking water

10. World hunger goes a

A safer (less violent), better educated (think Khan Academy) and stronger global economy in concert with technology, vertical farming and genetically modified crops will substantially increase production and yield, while enhancing nutrition
There will be $100 agricultural robots in the future – Farmers will manage their fields instead of working all day in them
Plant-based meat alternatives will be cheaper to produce than beef
Cows graze on 30% of earth’s land surface – Imagine how we could use that space differently and how much less methane will be released to the atmosphere
Insect protein, containing more protein than meat, is being developed and labeled as an “alternative protein source” (since people reject the idea of eating insects)

11. We'll self-diagnose

Medical devices called "Tricorders" (from Star Trek) that work with your mobile device will scan your retina, take your pulse and O2 level, draw a microscopic blood sample, collect your breath, etc. to analyze more than 54 biomarkers to identify nearly any malady, sickness or disease, plus the absence of a problem
Everyone on the planet will have access to telemedical analysis – nearly for free

12. We'll live longer

Today, the average lifespan of a global citizen is 72.6 years – Their life expectancy will increase an average of 4.4 years within the next two decades
With advancements in 3D printed body parts, genomics, immunotherapy, precision medicine, probiotics and an Alzheimer’s cure we should plan to live past 100 years

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution

13. Software will continue to disrupt most traditional industries

Uber is just a software tool – They don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world
Airbnb doesn’t own properties – yet they are the biggest hotel company in the world

14. We'll make our own things

The cheapest 3D printer dropped in price from $18,000 to $400 in ten years and became 100 times faster – You can buy one today from Amazon for less than $200
The international space station 3D prints a large amount of its spare parts – Now, some remote airports are 3D printing their spare airplane parts
Most shoe companies have started 3D printing shoes – Today, smart phones have 3D scanners that let you scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home
The Chinese printed and built a complete 6-story office building years ago
Within the next decade, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D printed

15. Passwords go away

Multi-factor biometric authentication, cryptography and blockchain are eliminating the use of passwords – No more remembering or managing hundreds of passwords
Three factor biometric authentication is 99.9999% effective and the blockchain eliminates the need to share personal authentication data with third parties (financial institutions, etc.) – So, expect less fraud, theft and loss of privacy

16. Artificial Intelligence will make our decisions

Computers will become exponentially better in understanding the world – They’ll make decisions much quicker than a human, with more accuracy
In 2017, a computer beat the world’s best Go-player – 10 years earlier than expected
IBM's Watson provides legal advice within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared to 70% accuracy when done by humans – There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future
If you study law, stop immediately. Young lawyers are struggling to get jobs
Watson is helping diagnose cancer– with 4 times more accuracy than human nurses
Facebook's pattern recognition AI software recognizes faces better than humans

Around 2030, Singularity is expected to occur – when a computer will become more analytically intelligent than a human

17. Our jobs will change

70 to 80 percent of existing jobs will disappear in the next 20 years -- There will be a lot of new jobs, but there may not be enough new jobs for everyone

Scary, but exciting!

So, if you are deciding on what to study in college or have a scathingly brilliant idea for a business, ask yourself -- "Will there be a demand for your degree or idea in the future?" If the answer is yes, may the force be with you.

Ideas designed for success in the 20th century are doomed to failure in the 21st century

Revisions were made on April 14, 2020 by Joe Lawrence, Owner & CEO of Magnificum, LLC which is headquartered in San Diego, CA